Saturday, July 07, 2018

The Trump Economy: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs



Amidst Another Strong Jobs Report, Main Street Optimism Is On A “Stratospheric Trajectory” Thanks To President Trump
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TOP TAKEAWAYS:

·         The labor market continued its upward trajectory in June, beating expectations by adding 213,000 jobs while the Hispanic unemployment rate fell to another record low.

·         The June jobs report is being hailed as “another strong month” and “good as it gets.”

·         Americans are loving President Trump’s economic policies, as more than half the public approves of how he is handling the economy. 

·         Thanks to President Trump’s pro-growth agenda of tax cuts and deregulation, Main Street optimism is on a “stratospheric trajectory.”

·         In May, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index “increased to the second highest level in the NFIB survey’s 45-year history.”
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ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER STRONG JOBS REPORT:

Nonfarm Employment Increased By 213,000 Jobs In June, Beating Expectations And Bringing The Total Of Jobs Created Under President Trump To 3.2 Million

Nonfarm Payroll Has Increased By 3,216,000 Since President Trump Took Office. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 7/6/18)

Nonfarm Payroll Increased By 213,000 In June. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 7/6/18)

·  Economists Surveyed By Reuters Expected Nonfarm Payroll To Increase By Only 195,000 Jobs.

“The June nonfarm payrolls report was expected to show an increase of 195,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8 percent and average hourly earnings increasing by 0.3 percent monthly and 2.8 percent year over year, according to economists surveyed by Reuters.” (Jeff Cox, “Nonfarm payrolls increase by 213,000 in June vs. 195,000 estimate,” CNBC , 7/6/18)

The Labor Force Grew By 601,000 In June. “The unemployment rate rose for good reasons, not bad. Labor force participation up two ticks, labor force grew by 601k.” (Neil Irwin, Twitter Feed, 7/6/18)

·   “For The First Time, There Are More Job Openings Than There Are Eligible Workers To Fill Them.” 

“Private payrolls grew less than expected in June, likely due not just to a slowdown in hiring but also a decline in the labor pool. For the first time, there are more job openings than there are eligible workers to fill them.” (Jeff Cox, “The U.S. Labor Shortage Is Reaching A Critical Point,” CNBC , 7/5/18)

The Unemployment Rate For Hispanics Fell To A Record Low 4.6 Percent In June.

“The unemployment rate for Hispanic or Latino workers fell to 4.6 percent in the month, lower than the previous record of 4.8 percent that was set in October 2006 and which has been hit several times in recent months.” (Joseph Lawler, “Hispanic Unemployment Hits New Record Low In June,” The Washington Examiner, 7/6/18)

Overview Of Recent Monthly Job Creation. (“Employment, Hours, And Earnings From The Current Employment Statistics Survey (National),” Bureau Of Labor Statistics, 7/6/18)

  • June: 213,000 Jobs Added
  • May: 244,000 Jobs Added
  • April: 175,000 Jobs Added
  • March: 155,000 Jobs Added
  • Feb: 324,000 Jobs Added
  • Jan: 176,000 Jobs Added
  • Dec: 175,000 Jobs Added
  • Nov: 216,000 Jobs Added
  • Oct: 271,000 Jobs Added
THIS MONTH’S JOBS REPORT IS BEING WIDELY PRAISED

The Economy Is As Good As It Gets

This Jobs Report “Bodes Well” For The Months Ahead.

“In effect, a whole lot of people entered the labor force, but not all of them found jobs. That bodes well for the months ahead.” (Neil Irwin, Twitter Feed, 7/6/18)

Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal Said That “The Report Signals Ongoing Strong Pace Of Job Creation, But Absolutely Zero Signs Of Overheating Etc.”

Stock Futures Tick A Little Higher Basically the report signals ongoing strong pace of job creation, but absolutely zero signs of overheating etc.” (Joe Weisenthal, Twitter Feed, 7/6/18)

Over The Past Three Months Job Growth Has Averaged 211,000, A “Darn Healthy” Number.

“The underlying pace of jobs growth: - Over the past three months, jobs growth has averaged +211k - Household survey shows +102k employment growth; establishment says +213k. My preferred 20/80 average = 189k Both are darn healthy for this stage of the cycle.” (Justin Wolfers, Twitter Feed, 7/6/18)

The University Of Michigan’s Justin Wolfers Called The Trump Economy “The Little Engine That Could, The Economy That Keeps Huffing And Puffing Along.”

“Payrolls +213k in June, while the unemployment ticks up to 4.0%. Revisions boosted May from +223k to +244k and April from +159k to +175k. This is the little engine that could, the economy that keeps huffing and puffing along.” (Justin Wolfers, Twitter Feed, 7/6/18)

Another “Monster Month For Manufacturing.” “It was another monster month for the manufacturing. 36,000 jobs added. 3rd best month of the last 5 years” (Joe Weisenthal, Twitter Feed, 7/6/18)

CNBC Panel Praises The “Great” June Jobs Report, Calling It “As Good As It Gets.” 

CNBC’s JOE KERNAN: “All right let's move around the room how about -- that's not a room, but around our six box whatever we have how about you, Phil?” 

CNBC’s PHIL SWAGEL: “I agree I look at the u-6. It's still up there, right there's room to run. You can look at next month and say look there's still scope for another goldilocks coming a month from now but I agree with Jim this is as good as it gets.” 

KERNAN: “Jared, how did you – what about you? Not a big miss in terms of what you were looking for but still.” 

CNBC’s JARED BERNSTEIN:  “No, it's a great report I love the 20 basis point pop on the participation rate you know, we're still not seeing the kind of wage growth we might expect at such low unemployment. But it sounds like the tick up in unemployment was kind of -- if you have to have it tick up, this is the way you want it. More people coming into the job market I think the tick up in the black unemployment rate was not unexpected but again, it does seem like there's more room to run in this recovery and that looks very good to me I imagine the fed looks at this report and says steady as she goes. I don't see anything in here that would normalize the pressure, the normalization campaign although Steve may see it differently I’m interested in his take” 

 KERNAN: Let's get to Rick first Rick, Steve will be following you so feel free to credit the Trump administration if you want, Rick, in any way you see fit. Because you know what's coming after you.” CNBC’s RICK 

SANTELLI: “Let the numbers speak for themselves, let the numbers speak for themselves.  ….” (CNBC’S “Squawk Box” 7/6/18)


CNN’s Christine Romans: “Another Strong Month For Job Creation.” 

CNN’s CHRISTINE ROMANS: 

“Hi there guys, another strong month for job creation, just crunching these numbers just out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If you look at June, 213,000 new jobs created, that is much more than folks thought and there were revisions in April and May. Look at what a strong spring it was for hiring. 

We can tell you that when you look at these statistics, there are basically more jobs available than people trying to get them. I mean it's really a great situation. Let’s take a look at the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate up a little bit to 4% and why did it rise? 

Because there were hundreds of thousands of people who have now started looking for work. These lost employees who left the labor market because they were disgruntled during the recession or for whatever reason, hundreds of thousands, about half a million people coming into the labor market looking for work, largely because of headlines like these we tell you about every single month.

They’re starting to be more encouraged that there are jobs out there for them. So where are the jobs? Business and information services, these tend to be higher paid jobs, 50,000 there. 

Manufacturing, another strong month for manufacturing, 36,000 jobs there. I can tell you over the past year manufacturing has added 285,000 jobs so bit of a manufacturing renaissance there. Health care, 25,000 jobs. 

We have seen that month after month. This is a consistent performer in the economy. Health care is a strong driver of jobs across the income spectrum..” (CNN’s “New Day,” 7/6/18)


CONSUMERS CONTINUE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN PRESIDENT TRUMP’S HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY

Americans Are Loving President Trump’s Economic Policies, As Consumer Confidence Reached A Record High In June

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey Shows More Than Half The Public Approves Of How President Trump Is Handling The Economy.  

“The CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows more than half the public approving his handling of the economy, and it appears to be having some impact on his overall job approval rating.” (Steve Leisman, “Majority Of Americans Approve Of Trump's Handling Of The Economy For The First Time: CNBC Survey,” CNBC, 6/25/18)

Strong Economic Growth, And Record Low Unemployment Has Translated Into “Positive Views By The Public On The Economy That Are Reaching New Records For The Survey.” 

“The rise in the president’s economic approval comes with growth running about a percentage point higher than it did during the Obama presidency, with unemployment near a 20-year low and amid what is believed to be a very strong quarter for growth. That has translated into positive views by the public on the economy that are reaching new records for the survey.” (Steve Leisman, “Majority Of Americans Approve Of Trump's Handling Of The Economy For The First Time: CNBC Survey,” CNBC, 6/25/18)

 “Views About The Economy Are Hovering Near The Best Level Since 2000.” 

“Views about the economy are hovering near the best level since 2000 as a strong labor market and durable expansion offset any concerns about the effects of trade tensions.” (Reade Pickert, “U.S. Consumer Comfort Reaches Two-Month High On Views Of Economy,” Bloomberg, 6/28/18)

65 Percent Of Americans Say That It Is A Good Time To Find A Quality Job, “The Highest Readings In Gallup's 17-Year History.” 

“Americans continue to recognize a robust U.S. job market, with 65% saying that it is a good time to find a ‘quality job,’ similar to 67% in May. These are the highest readings in Gallup's 17-year history of tracking this measure of Americans' views of the employment situation.” (Frank Newport, “Snapshot: Americans' Views Of Job Market Remain Upbeat,” Gallup, 6/29/18)

A Record High Fifty-Four Percent Of Americans Say The Economy Is Good Or Excellent, And For The First Time, The Percentage Of Americans Saying The Economy Is Excellent Outstrips The Percent Saying It Is Poor. 

“Fifty-four percent of Americans say the economy is good or excellent, the highest recorded by CNBC in the 10 years of the survey. Just 43 percent say the economy is fair or poor, the lowest in the history of the survey. Positive views on the economy have surged 20 points since the election. And for the first time, the percentage of Americans saying the economy is excellent outstrips the percent saying it is poor. 

Americans look for a strong 4 percent gain in their home values in the next year, equaling the highest percentage previously recorded in 2007.” (Steve Leisman, “Majority Of Americans Approve Of Trump's Handling Of The Economy For The First Time: CNBC Survey,” CNBC, 6/25/18)

Tax Cuts Have Put Money Back In The Pockets Of Working Americans, In June “Sentiment Among Those Earning Less Than $50,000 Advancing To The Highest In Data Back To 2010.” 

Lower taxes and a recent decline in gas prices are leaving more money in consumers’ pockets, with the survey showing sentiment among those earning less than $50,000 advancing to the highest in data back to 2010.” (Reade Pickert, “U.S. Consumer Comfort Reaches Two-Month High On Views Of Economy,” Bloomberg, 6/28/18)

Consumer Sentiment Notched A Slight Increase In June “The Persistent Strength Has Been Due To Favorable Assessments Of Jobs And Incomes.”

“Consumer sentiment retreated in late June to just above the May reading largely due to concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on the domestic economy. The falloff in confidence was minor, as the Sentiment Index has been virtually unchanged for the past three months. 

The persistent strength has been due to favorable assessments of jobs and incomes.” (Richard Curtin, “Final Results For June 2018,” University Of Michigan, Accessed 7/3/18)

SMALL BUSINESSES CONTINUED TO THRIVE IN JUNE

“Main Street Optimism Is On A Stratospheric Trajectory”

“Main Street Optimism Is On A Stratospheric Trajectory Thanks To Recent Tax Cuts And Regulatory Changes.”

‘Main Street optimism is on a stratospheric trajectory thanks to recent tax cuts and regulatory changes. For years, owners have continuously signaled that when taxes and regulations ease, earnings and employee compensation increase,’ said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan.” (“Small Business Optimism Index Soars, Continuing Historic Run, Hitting Several Records In May,” National Federation Of Independent Business, 5/18)

In May, The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index “Increased To The Second Highest Level In The NFIB Survey’s 45-Year History.” 

“The Small Business Optimism Index increased in May to the second highest level in the NFIB survey’s 45-year history. The index rose to 107.8, a three-point gain, with small businesses reporting high numbers in several key areas including compensation, profits, and sales trends.” (“Small Business Optimism Index Soars, Continuing Historic Run, Hitting Several Records In May,” National Federation Of Independent Business , 5/18)

“Small Business Owners Are Continuing An 18-Month Streak Of Unprecedented Optimism Which Is Leading To More Hiring And Raising Wages.” 

“‘Small business owners are continuing an 18-month streak of unprecedented optimism which is leading to more hiring and raising wages,’ said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

‘While they continue to face challenges in hiring qualified workers, they now have more resources to commit to attracting candidates.’” (“Small Business Optimism Index Soars, Continuing Historic Run, Hitting Several Records In May,” National Federation Of Independent Business, 5/18)

Almost A Third Of Small Business Owners Have Job Openings For Skilled Workers.

“Small business owners continue to hire with a seasonally-adjusted net 18 percent planning to create new jobs. Twenty-nine percent of owners have job openings for skilled workers, the third highest reading since 2000. 

Twelve percent have job openings for unskilled workers, with the strongest demand in the transportation, travel, communications, and utilities sector. To compete in the job market, 35 percent of owners reported increases in labor compensation to attract job applicants.” (“Small Business Optimism Index Soars, Continuing Historic Run, Hitting Several Records In May,” National Federation Of Independent Business, 5/18)