Saturday, July 20, 2024

Pollster Nate Silver: 'Unmistakable' Shift In Support for Trump

By Sarah Arnold |

AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

With just four months until the presidential election, America has witnessed a would-be assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, and over 30 Congressional Democrats called on President Joe Biden to exit the 2024 race. 

At this point, nothing would be shocking, and almost anything can shake up the entire direction of the election. 

But for now, Trump is taking a massive lead as Democrats scramble to find a solution to their sinking chances of keeping the White House. 

Pollster Nate Silver revealed an “unmistakable” shift to Trump after surviving an assassination attempt. 

As of Friday, Silver pointed out that there are “a lot of bad polling numbers for Joe Biden over the past 24 hours.” On the contrary, however, Trump’s numbers are climbing the stairway to Heaven.

In a poll conducted by Silver, Biden’s national polling average is down nearly four points, with just a 26 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. 

On the flip side, there has been a major surge in support for Trump.

A lot of polling in since yesterday, and we're seeing an unmistakable spike for Trump, who is now up almost 4 points in our national polling average. This presumably reflects the impact of the assassination attempt against him, plus the start of the GOP convention. Note it's more a matter of Trump's numbers increasing than Biden's decreasing. The forecast/forward-looking component is designed to be quite cautious around the party conventions, discounting Trump's numbers somewhat (it will do the same for Democrats in August) and hedging toward its pre-convention forecast. Still, a new low for Biden: 25.8 percent. Via @NateSilver538

 The poll’s findings come as more Democrats call on Biden to exit the 2024 race. 

In a recent podcast episode with Silver, the pollster— who is known for being historically accurate— said he doesn’t think Biden is “capable of running a normal campaign at all.”

In the episode titled "How to Convince Biden to Quit,” Silver argued that the president continues to fall further behind. Listening to his gut, Silver said there is no way Americans will vote for the 81-year-old president who is about to let COVID take him out after a bullet didn’t even stop Trump. 

Democrats have cited Biden’s disastrous debate performance as the nail in the coffin for any chance he had left to win a second term. However, polls conducted prior to the debate indicate otherwise. 

Before Biden took the stage last month against Trump, the president’s polling average was already struggling. In fact, it has been underwater since before his botched Afghanistan withdrawal. 

Biden began seeing his polling number drop rapidly as his reckless policies settled in. 

Earlier this year, his radical border policies highlighted the dangers of the thousands of illegal immigrants entering the U.S. had on Americans. This turned to voters citing his immigration policy as one of their top concerns. 

Inflation also caused Americans to reconsider voting for Biden. Every time they filled their car with gas or went to the grocery store, they were reminded of the president’s anti-American economic policies. 

Then, Biden’s support in key battleground states began to drop. 

Trump saw significant shifts in support among states, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada, which Biden won in 2020. 

Flash forward to today; Biden is hemorrhaging supporters as his political future looks to come to an end.

As Democrats Fracture, Biden Calls Himself the Unifier


AP Photo/Susan Walsh

The civil war in the Democrat Party keeps getting worse and worse, while the Biden campaign makes the case that the President is the great unifier who will heal our nation's division. 

As usual, the Democrats default to gaslighting and hoaxes. 


This video was pushed out at the exact same time as the Democrats started calling Trump Hitler again, ramped up the rhetoric on MAGA extremists, and have been metaphorically shooting at each other and perpetrating hoaxes on EACH OTHER. 

Biden's critics in the Democrat party have gone from hinting that Biden should consider his future to calling for him to step down to leaking, likely falsely, that Biden is getting ready to step down. 

The only evidence that this is true is leaks from the people pushing him out, and the speechwriter who was named as the one crafting Biden's resignation from the campaign strenuously denies it. It is just within the realm of possibility but so unlikely that it sure looks like just another power play by Biden's haters within the Democrat Party. 

Among the reports: that longtime speechwriter and historian Jon Meacham was writing Biden’s exit remarks. Meacham rebuffed the account. “The report is totally false,” he said. 

Here is the claim, which has been reported by many outlets now, and which to me seems very sketchy. I am usually wrong in my predictions, but the noises coming out of Bidenworld are not just rejections of the implications, but direct attacks on the leakers. 

WASHINGTON — Members of President Joe Biden’s family have discussed what an exit from his campaign might look like, according to two people familiar with the discussions. 

The overall tone of the conversations has been that any exit plan — should Biden decide to take that step, as some of his closest allies increasingly believe he will — should put the party in the best position to beat former President Donald Trump while also being worthy of the more than five decades he has served the country in elected office, these people said. 

Biden’s family members have specifically discussed how he would want to end his re-election bid on his own timing and with a carefully calculated plan in place. Considerations about the impact of the campaign on his health, his family and the stability of the country are among those at the forefront of the discussions, the people familiar with those discussions said.

Biden's campaign and leaks from the insiders directly around Biden strenuously deny it, and there are reports totally contradicting the claims made by Biden's critics.

Ed's great piece on Biden's response, in which he aptly called Biden's reaction to all this talk as "nuking" Obama, Pelosi, and Schumer, is totally apt. Biden doesn't sound reconciled to leaving; he sounds FURIOUS that people are showing disloyalty to him

“Can we all just remember for a minute that these same people who are trying to push Joe Biden out are the same people who literally gave us all Donald Trump? In 2015, Obama, Pelosi, Schumer pushed Biden aside in favor of Hillary; they were wrong then, and they are wrong now,” the source told NBC News.

The source pointed to polling in the 2016 election that found Hillary Clinton leading by as much as 9 points. 

How did all this work out for everyone in 2016? Perhaps we should learn a few lessons from 2016; one of them is polls are BS, just ask Sec. Clinton. And two, maybe, just maybe, Joe Biden is more in touch with actual Americans than Obama-Pelosi-Schumer?” the source added.

Ouch. Bidenworld is fighting back, directly attacking even Barack Obama as a political failure for allowing Trump to win. 

Bidenworld is not just signaling that Joe is going to stay in, but that his resolve is strengthening. 

It's all very unifying, isn't it? As is his reaction to Trump's speech. 

"Donald Trump's dark vision..." "Pain and cruelty." "Inflict pain." "Dictator on day one."

Yes, Joe Biden is the great unifier. At least on this:

Everybody wants him off the stage. Now. 


Post on "X"

The Wall Street Journal@WSJ

More Democratic lawmakers called on President Biden to step aside on Friday—signaling that party officeholders are unlikely to relent in their campaign to replace Biden

Friday, July 19, 2024

Trump 2.0, the GOP's Convention Triumph, and What Happens Next

By Ward Clark |

Stormy Petrel, the dark harbinger. (Credit: Ward Clark via AI - Night Cafe Creator)

Like so many of us, I watched the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last night. Like so many of us, I was anticipating former President Donald Trump's speech, given the intelligence we had received that, following the assassination attempt, he would be dramatically changing the tone of that speech. And, of course, we were all waiting to see his reaction to this:

And like so many of us, I realized that what I saw was remarkable. After what was one of the best-run, best-organized, most effective major party political conventions I've seen in over 30 years, we saw the final presentation: Trump 2.0, a changed man, calm, reflective, bringing a message of unity and purpose, talking not about himself but about America. His new, calmer demeanor this morning after the event is even impressing partisan Democrats. On Fox News, Democrat opinion writer Doug Schoen wrote:

Donald Trump may well have sealed the outcome of the 2024 election with a performance on Thursday night in Milwaukee that has largely been unmatched in recent American political history.

The former president eschewed the polarization and division that has marked much of his rhetoric in the past. In his speech officially accepting the Republican Party's nomination there were only a couple of references to the 2020 election. Trump was able to hit on key messages when speaking about topics like inflation, and especially immigration, in ways that were compelling and arguably responsive to the fundamental concerns of Americans.

I say this not to engage in hyperbole, as I have never been – and am not now – a Trump supporter. But as a political analyst, you have to acknowledge reality. And the reality of this speech was simple: Trump spoke of the American Dream, he spoke of bringing people together, he spoke of helping African-Americans, Hispanics and those who have been left behind. 

In short, Trump did something he has virtually never done before: speak to all the American people. As he said, he wanted to speak not to 50 percent but to 100 percent of the American people.

 Veteran commentator Carl Cannon is now referring to Donald Trump as the new Comeback Kid.

“Go and watch the video of a would-be assassin coming a quarter of an inch from taking his life,” vice-presidential nominee J.D. Vance told the hushed convention delegates on Wednesday. “When Donald J. Trump rose to his feet in that Pennsylvania field, all of America stood up with him. Donald Trump represents America’s last best hope to restore what – if lost – may never be found again.”

Even CNN's Van Jones was impressed, as my colleague Bob Hoge wrote on Friday after the convention closed.

The Democrats' August convention is likely to look very, very different. First, we have little idea who will emerge from that convention as the Democratic candidate, and honestly, they have almost no good options. Joe Biden's deterioration — his sudden fits of anger, his hissing whispers, his inability to complete sentences — compares much too vividly with Thursday evenings' calm, reasoned, humble, and reflective Trump 2.0.

And that's what is worrisome.

Desperate people can be dangerous. The Democrats' options at their convention are these:

  • Leave befuddled old Joe Biden in place, take the inevitable L, and concentrate on building a team for the next cycle.
  • Convince Joe to leave (if he has not already done so) and let Kamala Harris stand in as the candidate.
  • Have an open convention, with several candidates vying for the chance to be shellacked by Trump 2.0.

There doesn't appear to be any plausible scenario that makes a Democrat the 47th President of the United States. Keeping old Joe practically guarantees the loss. Keeping Kamala in place, likewise; she is already in over her head and is in no way qualified for the promotion. An open convention, no matter who is nominated, will leave the Democratic Party hopelessly shattered, to the point where they may be a decade rebuilding. The interesting question here is how the various Democrat constituencies will react to this — and to Donald Trump winning the election. Again, there are too many bad outcomes.

At this point, it's looking like Donald Trump has a lock on the 2024 election. So why am I not more optimistic?

Because desperate people can be dangerous, and when Donald Trump takes the 2024 election, many of the Democrats' special interest groups will be desperate. I'm not saying they will have reason to be; these are people who tend to invent things to be outraged about.

If we cast our optics back to 1968, to the Democrats' national convention in that year, coincidentally also in Chicago, we can see what may be a template for this year's Democrat convention. If we look to the summer of 2020, we may well see a template for what might happen after this 2024 election and the subsequent inauguration.

This is less certain, though, to my thinking, than it was only a month ago, and that is because of what happened at the GOP convention: There were protestors, there were marchers, but there was no mass violence, no arson, no vandalism. That's a hopeful sign.

But there was that nut who took a shot at a former President of the United States.

Since the late '70s, I've been watching politics like a lot of guys watch sportsball. I remember Nixon being forced out of office. I remember the various Clinton scandals. I remember Barack Obama's speaking at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, after which the common presumption was that he was an up-and-comer. And I have now seen an even more earth-shaking event in the 2024 Republican convention and the rise of Trump 2.0.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is on the verge of an internal civil war.

As I've been saying, we are in unknown territory. I'm cautiously optimistic that the peaceful conducting and closing of the Republican convention will prove prophetic for the Democrat convention, for the election, and the inauguration. 

But as my Old Man was fond of saying, it would be advisable to hope for the best but plan for the worst.

Thursday, July 18, 2024

The Natural: America Meets JD Vance


AP Photo/Evan Vucci

One word comes to mind after watching JD Vance's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention: authentic. In his nearly 40-minute speech, the young Senator from Ohio came across as witty, humble, affable, and passionate in his desire to represent the people from which he comes -- the overlooked Appalachian communities, and more broadly the struggling working class of America.

And there wasn't a hint of artifice in it. Vance appeared genuinely humbled to be there, genuinely concerned about the plight of the working class, and more than genuinely ready to lead on solutions for crime, addiction, national security, and a revitalization of the manufacturing industries that once employed his communities.

In short, Vance came across as a breath of fresh air. 

But perhaps a better term is this: natural. To riff off the Robert Redford film, Vance appeared so born for this moment that he didn't need to try hard to meet it; the ball just leapt from the bat and smashed the lights. Relaxed, confident, and thoroughly enjoying himself, Vance deviated from the script often to tease the Ohio and Michigan delegations, his own kids (assuming they were up late watching), and to make sure he told the crowd about his mother's 10-year recovery from addiction. He told hilarious stories about his grandmother and her love for firearms and "the F-word," and how she used a little bit of both to keep him from falling into the addiction and destruction cycle that afflicted too many of his friends.

To say that this is a rare combination is an exercise in understatement. But all one needs to do is watch political conventions to see just how rare it is, even for successful politicians. We've certainly seen plenty of these during the last three days, and some of those speeches have been excellent. However, none of them demonstrated quite as much ease, confidence, and power without outright yelling as Vance demonstrated last night by just being his authentic self. 

t's easy to see what Donald Trump saw in Vance as a running mate. On the campaign trail, Vance will be perhaps the most authentic person on the stump, assuming the Democrat ticket doesn't change. His life story has more compassion and empathy in a few sentences than Joe Biden's "Scranton Joe" routine. Kamala Harris speaks in Academia lingo and repetitive circular phrases. Vance can speak extemporaneously about his authentic life experiences in way to which voters can easily relate. Vance also provides a contrast to Trump's style in ways that complement it without competing with it. 

Perhaps the most compelling part of Vance's speech came toward the end, skillfully crafted to end on a unifying and emotional moment that spoke to what it means to be American. And it was about his family cemetery in Kentucky:

Now when I proposed to my wife, we were in law school, and I said, “Honey, I come with $120,000 worth of law school debt, and a cemetery plot on a mountainside in Eastern Kentucky.”

And I guess standing here tonight it’s just gotten weirder and weirder, honey. But that’s what she was getting. Now that cemetery plot in Eastern Kentucky is near my family’s ancestral home. And like a lot of people, we came from the mountains of Appalachia into the factories of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Now that’s Kentucky coal country, one of the 10 —Now, it’s one of the 10 poorest counties in the entire United States of America.

They’re very hardworking people, and they’re very good people. They’re the kind of people who would give you the shirt off their back even if they can’t afford enough to eat.

And our media calls them privileged and looks down on them.

But they love this country, not only because it’s a good idea, but because in their bones they know that this is their home, and it will be their children’s home, and they would die fighting to protect it.

That is the source of America’s greatness.

 Indeed it is. And it is that connection to America's core that will serve Vance well in the coming months of a very difficult campaign. 

America met JD Vance last night, but JD Vance knows America. 

Here's the whole speech. If you missed it last night, carve out 40 minutes this morning. You'll be happy you did. Unless your name is Kamala Harris or Joe Biden, that is.


WATCH: Allegedly COVID-Positive Biden Looks Completely Gone Boarding Air Force One, Theories Run Wild

By Bonchie |

AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez

As RedState reported, Joe Biden is allegedly COVID-positive. That led to a quick exit from Las Vegas, where the president was originally scheduled to hold a campaign event. The day before, he spoke to the NAACP annual convention, showing no sign of COVID, but plenty of signs of senility. 

Video of Biden arriving on the tarmac and boarding Air Force One immediately raised eyebrows. To put it succinctly, the president looked completely gone, and it sure didn't look to be COVID-related. 

Never has one minute said so much about a man's condition. The clip starts with Biden getting out of the presidential limousine, but something happens and he appears to freeze. After several seconds, a member of the Secret Service reaches over and helps him stand up. The president then turns to his right and attempts to give a thumbs-up to someone. It appears that he says "I'm good," though I'm not an expert lip-reader.  

From there, Biden begins to walk toward the short stairs on Air Force One, hunched over a bit with his arms locked by his side. As has been mentioned before, the loss of motor skills in one's arms and hands is a hallmark of Parkinson's disease. 

Biden then offers a salute before grabbing the handrail on the stairs. A couple of steps up, though, he freezes for a moment, appearing to lose his balance. He then continues in an extremely slow manner and with a very stiff presentation. At the top of the stairs, he again pauses momentarily, and his last few steps appeared heavily labored, as if he almost wasn't going to make it. 


The entire sequence was very disturbing, and though I usually try to steer away from conspiracy theories, I'm very skeptical that any of this is a product of COVID-19. I wasn't the only one either. Many speculated that the real reason behind this sudden departure from the campaign trail was to buy time for Biden and hide deliberations about his future.

I tend to agree. The timing here is far too convenient given news broke on Wednesday morning that Democrat Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has asked Biden to step aside. The DNC also just delayed its nomination process, pushing back its virtual roll-call. Then all of a sudden Biden has "got COVID" and is being rushed off to Delaware and not the White House for what will probably be at least a week of isolation? Yeah, I'm not buying it, and neither is almost anyone else. Something is up here.

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

'Mine Eyes Have Been Opened': Madeline Brame's Ferocious Indictment of Alvin Bragg, Joe Biden


AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Last night's theme at the Republican National Convention -- Make America Safe Again -- didn't just exist as a slogan. National security and crime got an intense focus last night, especially in relation to border security and the fentanyl plague that has devastated middle America. Nearly every featured speaker, with the possible exception of Speaker Mike Johnson's compelling speech on conservative principles and Vivek Ramaswamy's on American exceptionalism (watch them here), related to the topic of security and the failures of Joe Biden to provide it.

But by far the most compelling voices on these issues came not from elected officials and candidates, but from everyday Americans whose lives have been tragically altered by crime. As the NY Times puts it in review, the stars of the evening were those lost in crime and drug waves, whose family members came to testify to the failures that let them die -- and let those responsible off the hook:

The theme was “Make America Safe Again,” and the stars of the night were not onstage. They were the deceased loved ones of one emotional speaker after another: women, children and police officers, the victims of illegal immigrants, vicious criminals and fentanyl dealers.

Anne Fundner, a mother of four from California, spoke tearfully of the death of her teenage son after a fentanyl “poisoning” that she laid directly at the feet of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Michael Morin told of his sister Rachel, “raped and murdered by a suspected illegal immigrant.” Mr. Biden never called, he said. Madeline Brame, the mother of a New York Army veteran stabbed on the city’s streets, passionately decried being “sick and tired of being sick and tired,” all to cheers.

 All three of these speeches had my wife in tears last nigh. Both Fundner and Morin struggled to get through their own emotions to finish their speeches, and the sight of that broke hearts wherever seen. This series of speeches, coming late in the program and after the highly anticipated addresses from Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley (watch them here), stole the show in an emotional sense. 

But the speech that brought the house down came from Madeline Brame. Brame, now a victim's advocate in New York City, had no trouble at all in speaking to the crowd about Alvin Bragg's refusal to prosecute those who killed her son, nor about the responsibility of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and their progressive allies in making American cities more unsafe than they had been in decades. Brame offered no rhetorical quarter and took no rhetorical prisoners, and her stemwinder had the entire convention hall on their feet roaring in approval:


As I quipped in our live blog: "Man, can we just have Madeline Brame go on the road with Trump for the next three months?" It could produce a 50-state landslide. Well, 45, at least. 

But don't miss the speeches from Fundner and Morin, either. They may not have reached Brame's rhetorical power, but the emotional impact of their stories should not be overlooked or missed entirely. All three made security and civil peace a personal and compelling issue in this campaign, and Democrats won't have anything to offer to counter it. 



Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Trump’s Near Miss — The Day George Washington’s Words Came To Life

By John Nantz |

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Thank God former President Donald Trump survived the assassination last Saturday during his campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Unquestionably the guiding hand of Providence protected him on that fateful day. A mere turn of the head was the difference between life and death, and possibly civil unrest on a scale not seen since the Civil War. America has been the beneficiary of providential acts since its inception. 

Even a cursory overview of American history displays the hand of God in our national affairs. In a letter to the Hebrew Congregation of Savannah Georgia, dated 14 June 1790, George Washington said, “May the same wonder-working Deity, who long since delivering the Hebrews from their Egyptian Oppressors planted them in the promised land — whose providential agency has lately been conspicuous in establishing these United States as an independent nation — still continue to water them with the dews of Heaven and to make the inhabitants of every denomination participate in the temporal and spiritual blessing of that people whose God is Jehovah.”  

Beyond Divine intervention, questions about the events of Saturday become gravely concerning. The actions, or inactions, of the Secret Service (SS) personnel assigned to Trump’s security detail are under incredible scrutiny, and have been subjected to some of the most unhinged conspiracy theorizing — mostly from individuals who have no background in law enforcement or dignitary protection. Even for some with credibility on this subject matter, the lure of “likes” and “reposts” seems just too seductive to ignore.  

Despite some of the irrational and uninformed guess work, there are a multitude of incredibly troubling questions that need to be answered. Having served for three and a half years on the FBI’s Attorney General’s Protection Detail (AGPD), I can provide some insight on the facts as they are known. 

Perhaps, the most significant question is how did someone gain access to an elevated position 130 yards from Trump’s podium, with an unobstructed view of the intended target? Many sources have reported the Trump detail was short on resources, and the SS Agent In Charge (AIC) requested additional support. Setting the question of additional support aside, the building where Thomas Matthew Crooks established his shooting position, given the lack of SS resources, could have been secured by one or more local law enforcement officers. This practice is fairly routine throughout the dignitary protection field. 

During several interviews with Fox News over the weekend, retired SS agent and former head of the Presidential Protection Detail, Frank Loveridge, said that “there’s a paper trail.” He went on to clarify that Trump’s detail would have produced an intricately detailed operations plan for the event, specifying who was responsible for securing the nearby building. Subsequent reporting from Fox News indicates that local law enforcement authorities were responsible for securing the building. And, reports state that at least one local police officer was involved in climbing to the roof, confronting Crooks, and retreating as Crooks turned to fire on him. Shortly thereafter, Crooks began firing on Trump’s position.  

Despite the strong likelihood that the responsibility was delegated to local law enforcement, it’s still the SS’s responsibility to ensure that all ancillary components are properly briefed as to their assigned tasks. This was a routine matter when I was assigned to the AGPD, a “no fail” environment where ultimate responsibility for operational elements under a detailee’s purview are his alone. There can be no excusing the SS for failing to properly plan for and ensuring the proper deployment of local law enforcement personnel. To be sure, any failures on the part of local law enforcement should be dealt with at the level of their chief executive. 

On a positive note, during a press conference held Sunday, FBI Special Agent In Charge (SAC), Kevin Rojeck stated unequivocally, “this evening we had what we are calling an attempted assassination against former President Donald, J. Trump.” It was encouraging to hear SAC Rojeck properly classify the incident as an “attempted assassination,” in light of the FBI’s equivocation with regards to the Congressional baseball shooting which occurred on June 14, 2017. FBI officials were quoted as characterizing the domestic terrorism event as “suicide by cop.” There are still many good men and women who continue to work selflessly in pursuit of the criminal elements that threaten civil liberties and the safety of the American people. At this point, it can only be said that SAC’s Rojeck’s comments were forthright, and set the tone of the investigation going forward. 

Controversy boils around the question of whether the SS counter sniper team was required to seek approval from SS headquarters before using deadly force to neutralize the threat posed by Crooks. This notion is counter to every practice I’ve ever encountered over the course of a twenty-six year career in law enforcement. The decision to utilize deadly force belongs to the law enforcement officer as presented in the moment. It cannot be outsourced. I cannot imagine any law enforcement officer seeking permission to fire his weapon from someone removed from the elements of ability, opportunity, and jeopardy — which must be present when the decision to engage arises.

We are incredibly fortunate as a nation to still have Donald Trump with us. Moreover, Trump has named J.D. Vance as his Vice Presidential candidate — a man most worthy of the honor. The Democrat candidates wither in the shadows of the Republican’s two robust and intellectually nimble candidates. 

Whatever the FBI and SS investigations reveal, the moment that will echo forever through the hallowed halls of history will be a triumphant Trump, rising from his knees — bloodied — to shake an indomitable fist in the face of everything tyrannical. To a roaring crowd he shouted “fight!” We must all join him in the political fight at the ballot box, and install him as our next President. Undeterred by the loathsome assassins bullet, rally behind Trump and make America great again.