Helmut Norpoth still confident despite polls showing
Hillary ahead
By Paul Joseph Watson - October 24, 2016
Political science professor Helmut Norpoth, who has
accurately called the results of the last five presidential elections, still
asserts that Donald Trump has an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton
despite Clinton being ahead in the polls.
Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of
the popular vote for every election since 1996, including the 2000 race where
Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush took the presidency.
“It usually turns out that the candidate who does better
in his party’s primary beats the other guy who does less well,” said Norpoth,
adding that Trump’s margin of victory in New Hampshire and South Carolina
compared to Clinton (who lost in New Hampshire) was crucial to his model.
The other factor is the “swing of the pendulum,” which
makes it far more likely for a change of government if one party has been in
power for two terms.
Norpoth said he has gone “all in” on a Donald Trump
victory and is sticking with his bet.
“There are also quite a few colleagues of mine who have a
prediction that Trump is going to make it,” added the professor.
Many Trump supporters are now claiming that the media
narrative that the election result is a foregone conclusion is a trick designed
to convince potential Trump voters to stay home on November 8.
A confidential memo allegedly obtained from Correct The
Record, a Democratic Super PAC, reveals a plan to “barrage” voters with high
frequency polls that show Hillary ahead in order to “declare election over,”
while avoiding any mention of the Brexit vote (which completely contradicted
polls that said Brexit would fail).
Emails revealed by Wikileaks show how Democratic
operatives planned to encourage “oversamples for polling” in order to “maximize
what we get out of our media polling.” In other words, sample more Democrats
than Republicans in order to make people believe that Hillary’s lead is far
greater than the reality of a tight race.
Norpoth’s forecast of a Trump victory mirrors what’s
taking place in the betting markets, with British bookmakers William Hill
revealing last week that 65% of all bets on the market have backed Trump to win
the election, a similar phenomenon to what happened before the Brexit vote,
where the polls were proven completely wrong.
