AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
The Democrats pushed Joe Biden to the side because of how badly he was doing in the polls and replaced him with Kamala Harris.
But there are a few things they don't seem to have factored into the equation when they made this move.
One is that Biden, for whatever it's worth, does have some favorability in Pennsylvania, the most critical state in this election, as "Scranton Joe." He was at one point viewed as moderate, which would be more appealing to the area. Meanwhile, San Francisco liberal Harris does not.
But there's another big factor that CNN's Harry Enten points out -- that she doesn't have the pull with the union households that Biden had either, Harris is 10 points off where Biden was:
"But, look at where Kamala Harris is today! She's only leading by nine points. That would be the worst Democratic performance in a generation. Ten points off the mark of Joe Biden." He noted how Joe's official numbers had him 19 points ahead in 2020, and that he had put himself out as "Union Joe."
That's not going to be good for her, particularly in the Rust Belt. I wrote about some of the trouble they were having there earlier, in Michigan, including with polling that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) was warning them about.
If we look at what union members were telling MSNBC were their concerns -- jobs and illegal immigration -- you can see why they would more naturally gravitate to Trump, versus Harris. It's also why Trump might have more of a pull for members than a regular Republican out of central casting might.
Not to mention that union households have the same issues with the Harris-Biden economy that the rest of us do, with being crushed by inflation.
MSNBC also noted the problem that Harris was having with male voters of all kinds -- old, young white, and people of color.
Remember the Teamsters polling and how that broke heavily for Trump over Harris?
If you look beyond the top line, in their polling, it looks even worse for the "coup" from the Democrats.
The straw poll that they took between April and July nationally had Biden up 44.3 to 36.4.
Biden was up with the Teamsters in most states, even in some of the Southern red states.
But Harris, on the other hand, is not just behind nationally to Trump -- she's behind in every state.
Trump beats her in every state, including places like California, New York, New Jersey, and even Hawaii in the Teamsters state polling. Perhaps more importantly, Trump beats her with Teamsters in every swing state -- and by a fair amount:
Nevada: 59.9 to 37.3
North Carolina: 69.1 to 29.2
Georgia: 56.3 to 40.7
Arizona: 57.3 to 38.7
Michigan: 61.7 to 35.2
Pennsylvania: 65.3 to 31.4
Wisconsin: 57 to 40.5
Notice in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina, how those states have even more than the national polling number for Trump.
Since we've also been talking about Virginia potentially tightening up, their numbers are also of note, with one of the highest Trump leads among the states:
I think this is indicative of the Teamster members'--and frankly, members of a lot of other unions--top priority being the economy, jobs, and the border. On all of those issues, Trump holds a lead over Harris in most polling. I don't think they connect with the progressive, inability-to-be-real nature of Harris. Heck, there's a problem in general for her connecting with men.
Translation?
Karma may be coming back to bite them, if the coup costs Democrats the race.
