AP Photo/Adel Hana, File
Did the Israelis just take out two key leaders in Iran's proxy armies? Just hours after announcing that a strike in Beirut killed Hezbollah's top military commander, the Iranian state media announced that Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh had been "martyred" in Tehran. Haniyeh had just arrived there to meet the newly elected president:
Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard said Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran.
The statement gave no details on how Haniyeh was killed. State TV reported on his death early Wednesday.
Haniyeh was seen just hours earlier embracing the president-elect.
Again, this follows on the heels of the IDF's strike on Fuad Shukr, a top commander in Hezbollah, in retaliation for an attack on the Golan Heights that killed a dozen Druze children:
Israel launched a deadly strike in a densely populated Beirut suburb on Tuesday in retaliation for a rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that it blamed Hezbollah for and that killed 12 children and teenagers on a soccer field.
The target of the Israeli strike in a southern suburb of Lebanon’s capital was Fuad Shukr, a senior official who serves as a close adviser to Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, according to three Israeli security officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details.
The Israel Defense Forces later said in a statement that its fighter jets had “eliminated” Mr. Shukr, but there was no confirmation from Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed group, and the claim could not be independently verified.
And ... did the IDF send out a warning earlier in the day?
We'll see. According to Iran's state-run media, the attack killed Haniyeh and his bodyguard. Hamas claims that Haniyeh died in an Israeli raid (the Iranians put scare quotes around the term Israeli, natch), although thus far the IRGC isn't confirming that. And one has to wonder whether they ever will, because the failure to protect the key ally in their own capital will humiliate the IRGC, It's one thing to have Qasem Soleimani killed in the field in Iraq; it's another to have the Israelis -- if it was the Israelis -- take out the head of Hamas just after paying homage to the mullah's new puppet in Tehran.
The Jerusalem Post picked up a similar report, although this one uses Zionist rather than Israeli:
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran, Hamas confirmed on Wednesday morning, while claiming Israel was behind the attack.
In a statement, the Islamist terror group said they mourned the death of Haniyeh, who it claimed was killed in "a treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran."
Benjamin Netanyahu promised after October 7 that every member of Hamas would be a "dead man walking." He meant that literally, clearly.
Needless to say, this changes the dynamics around the war in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, and, well ... pretty much everywhere. Haniyeh thought he was safe to travel outside of Qatar, and he chose poorly. But what will this mean for Yahya Sinwar and the rump Hamas forces still trying to negotiate their way out of their own vise in Gaza? Probably nothing good for anyone in the short run; Iran will likely retaliate -- if they ever admit that the Israelis just humiliated them in their own capital -- and escalations will follow, although on what scale is anyone's guess.
However, one thing has been made clear. The Israelis are not fooling around. They mean to destroy Hamas from the bottom to the top, and they're not going to let Sinwar lead them around by the nose again. We'll have more on this as it develops tomorrow and in coming days.
Update: I'll be leaving this until the morning, but there's a good reason not to rush to credit Israel yet. They certainly have the desire and the resources to pull this off, but the Palestinians are not at all popular with the Iranian people. It would be more fun if this was an organic expression by the Iranian populace against a regime ally. It's very unlikely, but we can wait to see who takes credit for it.
Update: OK, one more quick update before morning. Hamas is certainly convinced that the Israelis conducted the assassination, and they say the gloves are off, or something:
Ibrahim Madhoun, an analyst close to Hamas, said the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, was “a major blow” for the group, but he said it wouldn’t upend it. Hamas faced this before with the deaths of Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi, he said, naming Hamas leaders killed by Israel. The killing of the Hamas political leader, he said, illustrated that there were no red lines in the war between Israel and Hamas.
Ahem. "Red lines" like ... what, exactly? Mass rape and slaughter of civilians? Kidnapping of the elderly and babies? Red lines like that? Hamas doesn't have red lines. And now they know that the Israelis understand that better than ever. FAFO.
Update: The Houthis and Islamic Jihad sent their leadership to Tehran for the inauguration, too. Want to bet they're feeling veeeeerrrrrry nervous about staying there now?
Update: The NYT wonders about that, too. "A security breach at this level in Iran also raises questions about the safety of Iran’s top leaders who were in close contact with Mr. Haniyeh just hours before his assassination." You'd better believe that's precisely what Israel had in mind as a secondary effect of doing this in Tehran.
