By Chris Powell | Trending Politics.com
Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris is in serious trouble according to the latest forecast from top pollster Nate Silver. In what can only be described as a crushing blow to the Vice President’s 2024 aspirations, the numbers paint a bleak picture for her chances against former President Donald Trump.
Silver’s latest analysis gives Trump a 53.1% chance of victory, compared to Harris’s 46.6%. But it’s the swing states that are sounding the loudest alarms for the Harris camp. Trump is leading in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—states that are crucial for any Democrat hoping to secure the presidency. Arizona, in particular, is a disaster for Harris, with Trump holding a commanding 62-38% lead. Georgia and North Carolina are no better, with Trump ahead by double digits in both.
Harris does manage to eke out a lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, but it’s hardly the margin needed to offset Trump’s dominance elsewhere. With the Polymarket odds showing Trump at 50% and Harris at 49%, the election is shaping up to be a nail-biter—but one where Trump seems to have the upper hand.
If these numbers hold, the road to the White House for Kamala Harris looks more like a dead end. In her first sit-down interview as the Democrat presidential nominee on Thursday, Harris discussed a range of topics including her economic plans, fracking, immigration, and the current administration’s performance. During the interview, she also addressed shifts in some of her policy stances.
However, she struggled to explain her flip-flopping positions and relied on running mate Walz to cut in at times. Breitbart reported on the ever-changing odds which now show Harris losing to former President Trump.
The vice president went from being the favorite to win with odds of 10/11 (52.4 percent) on Thursday to tied with Donald Trump on 19/20 (51.3 percent) each on Friday morning, according to the Star Sports betting company.
Over the same period, Trump’s odds of victory in November improved from 21/20 (48.8 percent) before the interview to 20/21 (51.2 percent), according to U.K. based bookmaker Betfair.
Thursday’s interview was the national media’s first chance to see Harris in an unscripted format taking basic questions about her campaign and qualifications to succeed Joe Biden. Reporters have tangled with her spokesman about why she’s dodged the press after more than a month on the campaign trail, and Thursday’s interview was the culmination of weeks of promises that she would finally do so. Horse traders, it seems, were not impressed.
“Vice President Harris is now tied at 19/20 with Republican candidate Donald Trump, drifting slightly from 10/11 yesterday. The Californian had been 5/6 in recent weeks but she has failed to surge ahead of Trump in the market,” Star Sports betting analyst William Kedjanyi told Newsweek. “GOP supporters will hope Trump can now go on to tip the balance in his favor, before November’s presidential election.”
He continued, “Before Kamala Harris’ sit-down interview with CNN overnight, the Betfair Exchange market had more or less been neck and neck. While the lead in the betting has flip flopped throughout August, momentum is now with Trump and he has become the odds-on favorite again after being backed into 21/20.”
Allies of Trump have continually cited the media’s inability to estimate his levels of support among the electorate, pointing to his upset 2016 win and concern by pollsters that the industry has not solved its trouble identifying MAGA supporters.
The path to 270 electoral votes relies on a number of swing states that Trump narrowly lost in 2020 including Georgia and Pennsylvania, but won four years earlier. In those instances, even some Democrats like Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) have predicted that Trump will carry their state.
