How does one know what the voting public thinks?
Once upon a time, long, long ago, public opinion polls
may have reflected, however faintly, some generalization of public
opinion. For a multitude of reasons, that is no longer true.
To demonstrate that point, compare the August 29 Rasmussen poll showing President Trump’s approval rating of 47 percent with the Quinnipiac reported approval rating of 38 percent. Even more irrational are the Quinnipiac poll result that whatever is left of Joe Biden would beat Trump 54 percent to 38 percent in a general election and the Economist poll number that asserts that 55 percent of the public thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction. It is a near certainty that none of those numbers reflects reality.
To demonstrate that point, compare the August 29 Rasmussen poll showing President Trump’s approval rating of 47 percent with the Quinnipiac reported approval rating of 38 percent. Even more irrational are the Quinnipiac poll result that whatever is left of Joe Biden would beat Trump 54 percent to 38 percent in a general election and the Economist poll number that asserts that 55 percent of the public thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction. It is a near certainty that none of those numbers reflects reality.
So, discarding the meaningless political
polls, I went to the most accurate opinion poll I am aware of
for my pre-quadrennial presidential forecast: the Washington County (Pa.)
Agricultural Fair.
After my 2016 visit to the fair, I reported that Trump
was going to win Washington County big. Why? Enthusiasm
was enormous. Trump hats were everywhere. People
were wearing Trump shirts and Trump pins. These were not all
registered Republicans, either. There was a large booth selling
Trump merchandise and doing a land office business. There was no
similar Clinton enterprise. The parking lot really told the
story. Literally thousands of pickup trucks, gun racks behind the
seats, many with Trump stickers and campaign messages on bumpers and tailgates. Mixed
in were Mercedes and Lexus, many with similar stickers. If Mercedes
and Lexus made gun racks, they would have had those, too.
The County Fair Poll was pretty accurate. Washington County turned out big: nearly 75 percent of its registered voters went to the polls, and they voted for President Trump with 60 percent of the vote. That means a lot of registered Democrats voted for President Trump.
The County Fair Poll was pretty accurate. Washington County turned out big: nearly 75 percent of its registered voters went to the polls, and they voted for President Trump with 60 percent of the vote. That means a lot of registered Democrats voted for President Trump.
What does the early forecast for 2020 look
like based on the 2019 Washington County Fair? It looks as if
President Trump will do even better than 2016. I have
never seen such enthusiasm, especially so far before an
election. More than 75,000 people attended the fair, and the crowd
was a sea of MAGA and KAG hats, Trump shirts, Trump pins, you name
it. This was Trump country, no doubt about it.
The Washington County Republican Party had a large booth
at the fair, as it always does. The booth was a big attraction from
morning to night. During the evenings, there were consistently large
groups of people at the booth. Some just wanted to talk about how
the president’s policies were helping their businesses. Others
talked about pay raises, still others about how the president was keeping his
promises.
Results matter to these people, and they are seeing results. Family and country matter to these people, and they see their families and their country better off under President Trump. Many who stopped wanted their picture taken with the “Don and Melania” cutout.
Results matter to these people, and they are seeing results. Family and country matter to these people, and they see their families and their country better off under President Trump. Many who stopped wanted their picture taken with the “Don and Melania” cutout.
Many wanted to register to vote or to change their
registration to Republican. Many of the registrations and changes
were twenty-somethings, which is telling. Many others wanted to sign
up to work for the party.
If we had Trump signs available, we could have given out
a thousand or more to people who wanted to put them in their yards that
day. Some 400 people joined the party as active
workers. There were two booths this year selling Trump
merchandise. In total, this far exceeded what we saw several months
before the 2016 election. Imagine what it will be at this time next year.
Across the aisle from us was the Democratic
Party booth. It is no exaggeration to say it was mostly
empty. There was no enthusiasm or energy on the other side.
President Trump delivers results, and that’s what people
want. He keeps promises, and that’s what people want. He
defends our families, our people, and our nation. That’s what people
want. People simply are not buying the socialist pond scum the
Democrats are trying to sell. People want more jobs, not fewer
jobs. They want lower taxes, not higher taxes. They want
to make their own choices, not have the government run their
lives. That’s why the Democrats’ booth was empty.
Looking around the crowd, the uniform of the day was work
boots, jeans, tee-shirts, and ball caps. Those who were not sporting
Trump gear were obviously well familiar with John Deere, Kubota, a number of
seed companies, Remington, Winchester, the NRA, and John 3:16.
The parking lot was full of pickup trucks because these
are working people. They drive America. They are directly
impacted by what people at all levels of government do — not in a theoretical
or philosophical way, but in a very real way. Government policy
and action are, to them, their jobs and their families’ security.
They work hard, and they expect other people to do the same. They are not looking for handouts or free stuff. They are looking for the opportunity to thrive because they earn it. Many have fought for their country or have relatives who have, and they do not react well to those who disrespect this great nation. They keep their promises and expect the people they elect to do the same. Most importantly, these people vote.
In 2016, the people of Washington County turned out in huge numbers and overwhelmingly voted for President Trump because they like what he promised and believed he would deliver on those promises. The president has delivered on his promises, and people are measurably better off: more people have better jobs; they are more secure; the economy is doing well; and, despite constant Democratic obstruction, progress is being made in many other areas.
The 2019 Washington County Fair is an early poll on how people are reacting to what the president has delivered and how they intend to vote in 2020. The Washington County Fair Poll says President Trump will carry Washington County by a huge majority; what we see here will also be true in many other areas of Pennsylvania. The president will carry Pennsylvania handily. I suspect that the same will be true in many other states.
They work hard, and they expect other people to do the same. They are not looking for handouts or free stuff. They are looking for the opportunity to thrive because they earn it. Many have fought for their country or have relatives who have, and they do not react well to those who disrespect this great nation. They keep their promises and expect the people they elect to do the same. Most importantly, these people vote.
In 2016, the people of Washington County turned out in huge numbers and overwhelmingly voted for President Trump because they like what he promised and believed he would deliver on those promises. The president has delivered on his promises, and people are measurably better off: more people have better jobs; they are more secure; the economy is doing well; and, despite constant Democratic obstruction, progress is being made in many other areas.
The 2019 Washington County Fair is an early poll on how people are reacting to what the president has delivered and how they intend to vote in 2020. The Washington County Fair Poll says President Trump will carry Washington County by a huge majority; what we see here will also be true in many other areas of Pennsylvania. The president will carry Pennsylvania handily. I suspect that the same will be true in many other states.
Dave Ball is a voice for conservatism, the
author of conservative political commentary, a guest on political talk shows,
an elected official, and a county party official.
