Barro also points out that the inflation rate coming down and then going up creates a feeling of chaos and uncertainty about the future. Anxiety about the economy is the toughest political current to row against and it's doubtful that Biden has the skill to maneuver through it.
Biden isn't going to make economic conditions much better. His goal is not to have the economy be a drag on his campaign for re-election. That and abortion will put him over the top in the few swing states Biden needs to win.