Townhall Media/Julio Rosas
This state was supposed to be as blue as the Pacific by now. It’s why ideas like the national popular vote interstate compact were mulled for a hot second. That’s no longer true because public opinion is shiftable sand, and demography is not destiny. We were warned that Florida was on the verge of slipping out of competitiveness for Republicans.
One thing the political class never expected was Donald Trump coming like a bat out of hell. Not only is Florida never being more Republican, but Ohio, too. Both states, the source of heartburn for GOP pollsters regarding national elections, are now safe red bastions. Trump has shown that he can shatter the blue wall. What GOP candidate has given us that opportunity? Trump won every swing state this cycle, and as Democrats grapple with how to right the ship, the answer might be below the Mason-Dixon Line.
The Sunshine State is where some in the Democratic Party’s operative class feel that things must turn around if they wish to remain a viable national party. As of now, with the census and congressional reapportionment, it’s looking grim as red states are also bound to gain more Electoral votes. Politico wrote about how Florida is a microcosm of all the issues facing Democrats, but there’s also a huge problem that the progressive base might not like:
For those who’d been in denial, the 2024 election proclaimed Florida as a red state. The party got romped up and down the ticket, and many of the same factors that affected the rest of the U.S. were magnified here: Voters were deeply concerned about immigration, inflation and the economy, and Republicans received strong support from Hispanics.
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If national Democrats ignore the trends in Florida then they may very well be writing their own obituary, party strategists in the state say.
“If you want to elect presidents from 2032 on, we have to start winning states that we are losing,” said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist who successfully helped former President Barack Obama win Florida twice. National Democrats would need to invest in Florida and other southern states because it would otherwise take a “crazy set of circumstances to win Congress or the presidency,” he added.
Population growth leading up to 2030, when the next census and reapportionment take place, could deliver even more congressional seats — and Electoral College votes — to Florida, Texas and other Republican-friendly states, while Democratic-leaning behemoths of New York and California are poised to lose ground. The bottom line? It may not be possible for Democrats in future presidential cycles to get to 270 electoral votes without reversing their fortune in the South.
The progressive base can no longer push its ‘woke’ action items, get nutty about transgender stuff, and maintain this exclusionary, anti-Semitic, and unhinged platform that has done nothing but turn people away from the party. The GOP is now a multiracial working-class party, which is not an easy coalition to beat using whatever Democrats are trying to sell voters, which is soaked in condescension.
There’s also the timeline many Democrats might not like: the time to turn things around must start now because it could take as long as 25 years to see tangible results if successful.
“I don’t think this is a problem that unfortunately Florida Democrats can fix on their own,” said Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster who worked on Obama’s successful campaigns in Florida, and frequently dismissed claims that the state was in play for Democrats in 2024. “It will require the national party and national donors to look hard in the mirror and say, ‘We cannot afford as a party to sacrifice Florida.’”
But before any of that can happen, he said, Florida Democrats have to do an autopsy that’ll take a hard look at who they are, what they’re about, and why they’re coming across as a “toxic brand to the state.” Then they can rehabilitate, rebrand and start recruiting candidates around issues that voters tell them are priorities, he added.
It won’t happen quickly. Longtime Florida Democratic consultant Beth Matuga said a return to competitiveness for Democrats in Florida may take 25 years — that’s how long it took Republicans to build their now-massive advantage — and must start with a laser focus on voter registration.
Have you seen how liberals have reacted to their 2024 loss? This is a party that still feels they’re better simply for being—that’s a sure way to lose voters. And Democrats have done that quite well.
The South is their refuge, an area of the country they hate. It’s quite clear that there aren’t enough insane white, wealthy, and college-educated snobs to win nationally. Cope and seethe, Democrats—or don’t. I wouldn’t mind 12 years or more of uninterrupted Republican rule.
