Donald Trump was prophetic when he told supporters he was one indictment away from clinching the 2024 Republican nomination. Trump said this when the former president was already saddled with three trials. It was a foregone conclusion that he would be charged in the Georgia election probe, which became a RICO case in May. The man never ceases to amaze in disregarding every rule in modern campaigning and coming out on top. It started with his breaking of the ‘not wearing a funny hat’ protocol to boasting about legal entanglements that would have destroyed any other candidate’s presidential ambitions for the nomination in years past.
FiveThirtyEight even had a piece suggesting Trump’s support in the primary had dropped. Still, the declines in the polls analyzed are in the low single-digits, well within the margin of error, and he still sits miles ahead of the competition. I have no doubt Trump’s PACs will raise money to pay for those legal bills, which isn’t a good indicator of a campaign’s health, but the base, for now, is animated and ready to boot Biden next year. That intensity isn’t going to subside. What should be put to rest is this notion that Trump’s legal woes will be enough to sway GOP primary voters away from the former president. I’ve heard this for weeks now about how the indictments could throw a wrench in Trump’s 2024 plans. If anything, his support is de facto entrenched, a lock for the nomination before even the first primary. And the legal drama is only reinvigorating his base of support.