By Larry O'Connor |FOX News
Photo Source: AP Photo/Julio Cortez
Anyone who has read this byline over the years knows that
I'm not in the prediction business. I rarely take the precious space this fine
website grants me to tell you what I think or believe may happen in the future,
especially when it comes to how Americans will vote.
Anyone who tries to predict how the American electorate
will respond to the candidacy of Donald Trump is lying to you and themselves
and engaged in a fool's errand. This is a political figure who has defied every
ounce of conventional wisdom in the five short years he has been engaged in
electoral politics, and if the 2020 election is any indication thus far, that
phenomenon continues.
Remarkably, the majority of my very well-paid colleagues
who dabble in the dark art of political commentary and analysis on television
didn't learn this simple lesson after the 2016 presidential election. But,
there they are again, telling their viewers that the election is "Biden's
to lose" and "Trump is way behind" and (my personal favorite) "Biden is favored to win in 87 out of 100 scenarios!"
However, taking into account the well-executed disclaimer
above, I'd like to take a few moments to explain why I think President Trump's
debate performance Thursday night could very well be the game-changing event he
needed to head straight to re-election eleven days from now.
1. The Tone
I'm not one of those voters who really gives a flip about
whether a politician "sounds presidential" or not. Most of the men
who have held the office of president of the United States have had huge egos.
It's sort of a pre-requisite to put yourself out there as a potential
"leader of the free world," isn't it? I expect that most of the
presidents and presidential candidates in my lifetime have been insufferable
jerks behind the scenes and they put on their phony "presidential"
face to con the voters.
That said, we must recognize that many voters do crave a
straight-forward, serious tone in their president, and their opinions on this
matter should not be dismissed. After all, they vote too.
The latest RCP average of polls shows Biden leading 51% to 42%.
(I know, the national polls are irrelevant because of the electoral college,
but for the point I am about to make, the national polls actually serve a
purpose.)
To me, the remarkable aspect of this poll is not that
Biden is leading. It's that it shows 7% of the electorate is undecided. Really?
Undecided? This late in the game? And with these two politicians? One who has
been fed into our consciousness in every aspect of our lives over the past five
years and is currently the president and the other who was vice president and
has been in the public sphere for nearly five decades? Who in the hell are this
7% who can't make up their minds?
And then it hit me: They aren't undecided, they lean
Trump, but they are waiting to make that final commitment. Something is
stopping them. Something relatively intangible. It's the "tone"
thing. They are down with his policies and achievements, but they just don't
like the guy's attitude. They prefer the "presidential" thing.
Last night, Trump gave them just enough of that tone to
help them make that commitment in the final days of the campaign.
Again, I don't give a flip about the tone thing; I
evaluate results. Would I like my president to be the second coming of George
Washington and Abraham Lincoln? Sure. Is that guy even running for office in
this era? Hell no... I mean, the mobs are tearing down statues of the real Washington
and Lincoln, so why would our era's version step up?
2. The Oil
It can't be overstated: Trump getting Biden to admit that
he will end the oil industry was a seminal moment. It was the perfect
confirmation of just how radical, out-of-touch and destructive Joe Biden and
the Democratic Party have become.
The proof is in the Biden campaign's embarrassing attempt
to gaslight the world and tell us all that what we heard Biden say is not at
all what we heard Biden say.
Yeah right. He was just talking about subsidies.
Biden has been telling the country that he is not
beholden to the radicals in his party pushing the Green New Deal. Of course, we
don't really believe him, but many voters are more than prepared to allow
themselves to be fooled by such gaslighting. But this is indisputable. It comes
from his own mouth and semi-coherent words.
It's less about oil, although, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and
really anywhere else people like cars (I hear cars are big in Michigan), than
it is about Biden voluntarily confirming that he is aligned with the radical
Left to upend our nation's economy and way of life.
There's one other thing about this moment that helps
Trump. He created this moment. He had
to take charge of the stage, raise his hand to stop the moderator from moving
along, and challenge Biden directly with the question that should have been
asked and forced the agenda. This is an Alpha-leadership move and it is the
kind of thing that people genuinely want in a leader, regardless of politics.
3. The Outsider
Donald Trump has been president for four years. He is the
leader of the free world and has been at the center of every American political
issue for over five years. And yet, somehow, he is still running as an
outsider.
It's an amazing thing.
He got an assist from the Democrats since they nominated
the longest-serving politician in America who has been the ultimate insider and
personification of stagnant, do-nothing DC politics for that entire time. Trump
skillfully took that gift and hammered home the most important message of his
candidacy last night.
A sample:
"That’s a typical political statement. Let’s get off
this China thing, and then he looks: 'The family around the table,' everything.
Just a typical politician when I see that. I'm not a typical politician. That’s
why I got elected."
"See, it's all talk, no action with these
politicians. Why didn't he get it done? [You say], 'That's what I'm going to do
when I become president' – you were vice president along with Obama as your
president, your leader for eight years. Why didn't you get it done? You had
eight years to get it done."
"Joe, I ran because of you. I ran because of Barack
Obama. Because you did a poor job. If I thought you did a good job, I would
have never run."
In the final third of the debate, Trump was able to
settle into this theme very comfortably. It's no wonder it's what vaulted him
into the lead in the 2016 Republican primary and on to victory that November.
Anyone who is still undecided is probably a voter who does not traditionally
align themselves on a regular basis with one party or the other. They are
independent. These voters like outsiders.
They liked Ross Perot. They like Barack Obama. They like
Donald Trump.
He was able to remind them that even though he's the
president, he's still the consummate outsider compared to the likes of Joe
Biden.
Again, I don't pretend to tell you how voters will line
up in eleven days, and I won't insult your intelligence by assuring you that
this thing is settled for either of these candidates. If I had that kind of
undeserved arrogance and hubris, I'd be a television analyst.
I only say this; President Trump had a couple of
important goals to achieve in this last debate to give Trump-shy or
Trump-hesitant voters enough reason to commit to him. In my opinion, for what
it's worth, he achieved those important goals. And then some.
