Bret Baier breaks down his top takeaways from the South
Carolina debate.
There was a two-hour street fight in South Carolina
Tuesday night that turned into something that resembled a
debate between the seven leading Democratic presidential candidates.
The only way to view this final debate before the South
Carolina primary Saturday and Super Tuesday March 3 is whether it changed the
race for the Democratic presidential
nomination. The answer that it did not.
That means that Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. is still the
front-runner. Some other candidates had good performances, especially Sen.
Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and former Vice President Joe Biden. Other
candidates had a bad night, especially former New York City Mayor Mike
Bloomberg.
But the only measure that matters is how the debate
affects the race – especially when it could be over on Super Tuesday. The
debate didn’t change anything for Sanders. And that made it a very good night
for him.
It is remarkable that Sanders, on his second run for
president, has hardly been vetted to this day. A series of interviews and
articles leading up to the debate served to underscore that fact, as did his
performance Tuesday night.
Sanders had trouble answering a number of questions about
socialism, authoritarianism, guns, and how to pay for his costly health care
and education plans. At one point he was booed and that rattled him more than
any question.
But to stop Sanders from securing an insurmountable
delegate lead on Super Tuesday, the competing candidate needed to derail or
disqualify him in the debate. That didn’t happen. And that means it’s more
likely than not that Sanders could wrap up the race for the Democratic presidential
nomination next week when California – the most delegate-rich of the 14 Super
Tuesday states – finishes counting its ballots.
Warren had another strong performance in the debate,
making her case against Sanders and Bloomberg as well as for herself. While her
attacks didn’t spark the fireworks of the debate last week, Tuesday marked the
first time she drew strong contrasts between herself and Sanders.
Warren was very effective and very deft, but it is late
in the primary campaign. Better late than never. But Warren will wish she had
taken this approach a month ago. It would have served her well.
There’s no one better prepared with better plans and
clearer ideas to do a good job as president than Warren. Unfortunately for her,
that won’t get her enough delegates in the upcoming contests.
Biden had his best performance of late. He showed a lot
of fight and that’s what his supporters needed to see – especially in South
Carolina. No doubt Biden shored up his support going into the primary Saturday
when he needs it most, leaning on his relationship with former President Barack
Obama and his own record to make the case.
The fact is that the biggest threat to Joe Biden
throughout this race has been Joe Biden. He didn’t sabotage himself Tuesday
night and did what he needed to do. But that’s not likely to get him enough
delegates to catch Sanders, even with a win Saturday.
Finally, it was another bad night for Bloomberg. It’s
clear he went to debate camp to prepare for this one – but it didn’t work.
Yes, a few of Bloomberg’s lines were better than when he
debated for the first time last week. But his canned jokes failed and his lack
of awareness about his treatment of women was fatal.
Warren’s continued attacks on Bloomberg – specifically
about his treatment of women – were met with more dismissive responses that
were not only tone deaf but also wrong. In addition, the Bloomberg campaign ran
ads during the debate that served to remind voters that the guy on the stage
isn’t the guy in the ads.
Bloomberg is 0-2 in the debates and all the money in the
world can’t fix it.
Here are the night’s biggest winners and losers:
WINNERS
BIGGEST WINNER: Bernie Sanders
Sanders walked into the debate as the front-runner and
walked out as the front-runner. And that makes him the likely nominee if he
does well, as expected, on Super Tuesday.
What should trouble many Democrats about Sanders is his
continued inability or unwillingness to address how he’s going to pay the $60
trillion for his promises and programs, including “Medicare-for-all.” Sanders
is using the same answer he’s been using for weeks – ducking the details,
joking about how much time it would take, referring to nickels and dimes in a
condescending manner.
The lack of response to that question raises questions
about Sanders’ unwillingness to release his medical records. In many way he’s
much like Trump with a lack of transparency about matters that matter. Yet
Sanders is on his way to the nomination to face Trump.
WINNER: Elizabeth Warren
The strategy Warren employed Tuesday night is the one she
should have been using for the past month: saying that while she holds similar
positions to Sanders, she can turn those ideas into reality and get the job
done.
With more time that approach could take a good number of
votes from Sanders. And that could put Warren in the hunt for the nomination
again.
There was no better debater on the stage than Warren as
she made her case with substance and style that she employed once again in
devastating fashion with Bloomberg.
In addition to raising more questions about Bloomberg’s
treatment of women, Warren pointed out all the Republicans whose campaigns he
contributed to, including Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Pat Toomey
of Pennsylvania. She noted that Bloomberg also made campaign contributions to
former Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who was defeated by Warren.
No one has hurt Bloomberg more than Warren in the two
debates he participated in and in the nomination race.
But it all may be too little too late for Warren. Barring
a cataclysmic event in the next week or on route to the convention, Warren is
unlikely to catch Sanders.
WINNER: Joe Biden
Biden had his best debate performance when he needed it
the most. His performance should reassure South Carolina voters and that will
help Biden in the primary Saturday.
South Carolina is considered a must-win state for Biden
and he has said he will win. But even a big win in South Carolina isn’t likely
to enable Biden to gain ground on Sanders, and that’s the name of the game.
LOSERS
BIGGEST LOSER: Mike Bloomberg
At one point during the debate as it went to the first
commercial break, Bloomberg checked his watch. This was reminiscent of
President George H.W. Bush during a debate that marked the end of his chances
to defeat challenger Bill Clinton.
The same could be true of Bloomberg. All the money in the
world isn’t going to help Bloomberg win this race because in the end, you can’t
hide the real Bloomberg.
The ads are a great substitute for Bloomberg. But the
real Bloomberg has been revealed in these debates. Warren has shown him to be
the antithesis of how he is portrayed in his nearly half-billion dollars of
advertising.
It is the real-life person voters are casting their
ballots for – not the one portrayed in ads. That’s the real problem for
Bloomberg and it was on full display again Tuesday night.
LOSER: Pete Buttigieg
Once again, Buttigieg -- the former mayor of South Bend.,
Ind.,-- delivered a serviceable debate performance with his well-packaged
talking points and lines. But it didn’t change the challenges he faces in the
upcoming contests with voters of color.
Instead, Buttigieg rang the alarm throughout the debate
about the risks that face the country and the Democratic Party if Sanders is
nominated. However, raising these concerns fell woefully short of what was
necessary for him to be successful.
This adds to Buttigieg’s woes in the remainder of this
campaign and keeps him in the cycle of moderate voter cannibalism that could
deny all of the moderates the nomination.
LOSER: Amy Klobuchar
The New Hampshire debate is now officially a
one-hit-wonder for Sen. Klobuchar of Minnesota. Her performance in the two
debates since that night fell short of that one, and so too will her prospects
in the remaining contests as a result.
LOSER: Tom Steyer
Like his fellow billionaire Mike Bloomberg, Tom Steyer
has an endless reservoir of money to stay in the race. It has done little to
improve his debate performance but it has put him in contention for third place
in the South Carolina primary. That hurts Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar and it
doesn’t help Steyer – but it does help Sanders.
Mary
Anne Marsh is a Democratic political analyst and a principal at Dewey
Square Group in Boston where she provides strategic counsel for Fortune 100
companies, non-profits and political campaigns.
