AP Photo/Ron Harris
CNN has come out with its first electoral map of the campaign season and the "Road to 270." The map is based on polling and other factors they detailed.
And it is that path to 270 that we attempt to explore here. We base this current outlook on public and private polling, conversations with campaign advisers, Republican and Democratic political operatives, members of Congress, and political professionals involved with outside groups poised to be active in the race.
First, let's start by saying how hilarious it is that they spent multiple paragraphs downplaying the map before they even started talking about it. Here's a small sample.
This is an exercise designed to capture where the race stands today. If we have learned anything in recent American political history, it is to expect the unexpected. We don’t even know for certain if Biden and Trump will be the two major party nominees in the fall. However, since that appears to be the likeliest choice at this point, we have explored this initial outlook through the lens of a Biden vs. Trump race. Future versions of this outlook will similarly reflect the realities of the race, as best we can assess them at the time.
But once you get to the map, you see why they seemed to be trying to downplay it.
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Jesse Hughes ✝️🇺🇸 @jhughes1776
Map of 2024 based on CNN projections
Obviously, take this with a grain of salt, but if this is indicative of reality and holds until November, this year will be interesting
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In this initial electoral map outlook, Trump has 28 states (and one congressional district in Maine) either solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction that total up to 272 electoral votes – two more than what is required to win the presidency.
For his part, Biden has 19 states plus the District of Columbia either solidly in his favor or leaning in his direction, which brings his total electoral vote count to 225 – 45 votes short of the 270 required to win.
They thought three states and one district with 41 electoral votes were toss-ups: Arizona (11), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). But that would still leave Biden short even if he got all the toss-ups. He would still need one of the ones that's "leaning Republican" to flip to him.
Now, it is early, and I have doubts about things like Michigan leaning red. And we've already seen many data points that are spelling trouble for Biden that seem to back it up. From swing states going to Trump to Biden starting to hemorrhage people from vital groups he needs, including the young, the more left, black voters, and yes, Muslims in Michigan saying they're not going to vote for Biden because of his stance on the Israel Hamas war. Even Barack Obama is worried about the election and Trump's strength.
So I think it's fair to say this is one more sign of big trouble for Biden.
