By Matt Vespa |Townhall
Well, the narrative was set by the news media.
The early
voting for Texas Democrats is
sky high. The enthusiasm is high. Texas could
turn blue in the Trump era.
Well, almost all of that was false.
This
is a mythical unicorn the Democrats keep chasing, turning Texas Blue and once
again they were met with disappointment.
Now, for Republicans, they’ve been
trying to nab Pennsylvania since 1988, which was finally done under Donald J.
Trump.
Republicans broke their own record for midterm turnout,
with over 1.5 million casting ballots in the GOP gubernatorial primary.
Why?
Well, while the Democrats dominate the cities (shocker!), their strength in rural
America remains absolute trash.
“Yet even as Democrats in the state’s biggest cities came
out in large numbers, Republicans still cast more ballots over all thanks to
their rural strength,” reportedThe
New York Times.
The only thing Democrats have going for them in the Lone
Star State is enthusiasm, but that’s no guarantee of victory (via Politico):
The
2018 midterms kicked off in eye-opening fashion in Texas on Tuesday, as a
series of surprises in Democratic House primaries jolted the landscape while
the party’s large turnout sent a warning to Republicans nationwide.
But
the GOP remained in the driver’s seat in statewide races throughout Texas by
night’s end, leaving most of the shocks to down-ballot races.
Washington
Democrats saw some of their runoff plans go down the drain. Well-funded
candidates fell in contest after contest. George P. Bush unexpectedly cruised
to victory. And women kept on winning.
The Democratic civil war that erupted in the Texas
primaries will continue as Laura Moser, a progressive insurgent, claimed the
number two spot in the race for the Texas 7th congressional
district, triggering a runoff and keeping that wound between establishment and
progressives open.
Here’s some background on that race prior to Election Day
(via CNN):
A
crowded Democratic House primary in the Houston area has become a stand-in for
the broader battle within the party between progressives who backed Bernie
Sanders and members of the establishment.
The
controversy erupted more than a week ago, when the Democratic Congressional
Campaign Committee, the party’s political arm for House races, unleashed a
scathing attack against journalist and activist Laura Moser, one of seven
candidates in the Texas 7th District Democratic primary to take on Republican
Rep. John Culberson this fall.
[…]
Central
to the DCCC's case against Moser is a 2014 Washingtonian article in which she
wrote that she'd "sooner have my teeth pulled out without anesthesia"
than live in Paris, Texas. The committee feared the article was ready-made for
scathing attack ads casting Moser as a DC-loving, Texas-loathing carpetbagger
-- the kind that her campaign might never be able to overcome. Attorney Lizzie
Pannill Fletcher, nonprofit executive Alex Triantaphyllis and oncologist Jason
Westin are others seen as leading candidates.
"Democratic
voters need to hear that Laura Moser is not going to change Washington. She is
a Washington insider, who begrudgingly moved to Houston to run for Congress,"
the DCCC said on its website as it posted a bundle of research critical of
Moser.
But
progressive activists were incensed to see the DCCC -- which has long been
accused of recruiting too many moderate, milquetoast candidates and weighing
fundraising potential too heavily in deciding who to back -- weigh in with such
a heavy hand less than three weeks from the March 6 contest.
Well, even as liberal publications are noting,
Moser survived,
with some, like Mother Jones, saying this DCCC attempt to wipe her
out “blew
up” in their face:
The
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee waded into the seven-way primary
for Texas’ seventh congressional district last month with a specific goal in
mind: delivering a knockout blow to Laura Moser, a freelance writer and
Resistance activist with a large national following, who it feared would crater
the party’s chances in the closely watched swing district.
But
the DCCC’s attacks on Moser 10 days before the primary—a broadside so clumsy
and transparent it drew criticism from DNC chair Tom Perez and members of
Congress—didn’t work as intended. Moser raised $87,000 in the days after the
DCCC nuclear barrage and basked in the free publicity during the homestretch of
the campaign. And on Tuesday, she secured a spot in the May 22nd runoff against
Lizzie Fletcher, a Houston lawyer backed by EMILY’s List who led the field in
the first round of voting.
Now
Democrats in the seventh district, a longtime Republican stronghold that swung
harder to Hillary Clinton than any other district in the country in 2016, will
be faced with an unusual choice: a progressive candidate denounced by the
official campaign organ of the House Democratic caucus, or a more moderate
candidate rejected by the AFL-CIO.
This infighting among Democrats in competitive races is
what very well could derail their 2018 plans. With TX-7, it’s a total split
among the base concerning the Democratic candidates and the organizations that
have endorsed them.
To throw more cold water on Democratic hopes in Texas was
Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman who noted the party’s improvement in
midterm years, but added that the GOP still runs the table, with “lots of
DCCC-favored scenarios not panning out."
And what about Rep. Beto
O’Rourke, who is looking to unseat incumbent Republican Ted Cruz?
Yeah, he won
his primary—but he’s not going to win if he barely gets above 30 percent in the
rural areas.
Once again, Democrats are given a reminder that the cities can’t
carry you to victory (via WSJ):
Texans
also voted in primaries for state races, including governor and the state
legislature. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is also up for re-election and won the
GOP nomination with no serious primary opposition. Democratic Rep. Beto
O’Rourke won his party’s nomination to run against Mr. Cruz in what is shaping
up as an unusually competitive race.
Although
Mr. O’Rourke’s victory was solid, early returns showed his support was weak in
the rural areas where he has campaigned aggressively in his effort to appear in
every one of the state’s 254 counties.
While Mr. Cruz won his party’s
nomination by a resounding margin, Mr. O’Rourke lost almost 40% of the
Democratic primary vote to two little-known, poorly funded opponents.
So, there you have it.
Maybe the early voting number
isn’t the best gauge for measuring real, actual turnout.
There is no doubt that
the shifting demographics could make Texas a more competitive state, which
should keep Republicans up at night, but for this cycle—the Democratic wave
hopes in Texas is all hype.
