BY SCOTT JOHNSON | POWERLINE
I called Kevin this morning to ask if he would restate
his findings regarding the Delta variant and vaccine effectiveness in the form
of bullet or numbered points. He has responded to my request in the post “What more
can I say.”
Kevin introduces his summary with a comment that I know
is close to his heart in the midst of the present confusion and hysteria:
“I…take more than a little pleasure watching the alleged Biden administration
(who the hell is really in charge over there?) which only got
elected because of the epidemic and whose handling of the epidemic is the only
issue on which there has been (no more) a positive rating, flop and flounder
like the beached fish in rapidly-lowering Lake Mead.”
Kevin concludes with a comment regarding the CDC’s latest
mask recommendations: There couldn’t “be worse messaging than the CDC
telling vaccinated people to wear masks. Readers know that I don’t find any
evidence to suggest masks play any role in limiting transmission in the
community….And what is the point in pushing, even forcing people to get
vaccinated if they have to still abide by all the same futile and stupid
restrictions. But at least the CDC is consistent, they have done an absolutely
atrocious job of communication.”
In between these comments are his points. Read the whole
thing below.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/07/delta-variant-bullet-points.php
______________
RFELATED
ARTICLE
What More Can I Say
By Kevin Roche| Healthy Skeptic
The only thing that spreads faster than CV-19 is panic
about CV-19. It has been a while since I pointed this out, but you can’t
spell pandemic without panic. (And what party abbreviation do those other
three letters stand for? Hmmmm) (For the record, I am a free-market
libertarian.) After all this time, I would like to believe that my
beloved skepticism, even cynicism, had been adopted by the majority of my
fellow citizens in regard to any pronouncement from our political leaders,
physicians, scientists and most of all, public health experts. Could
there have been a worse record of performance from this group? No.
Now, I don’t really believe this because the consequences
are too severe for all of us, but I do take more than a little pleasure
watching the alleged Biden administration (who the hell is really
in charge over there?) which only got elected because of the epidemic and whose
handling of the epidemic is the only issue on which there has been (no more) a
positive rating, flop and flounder like the beached fish in rapidly-lowering
Lake Mead. Their credibility is shot and this abysmally incompetent group
is setting up the Dems for an epic fail in the next few elections. Simply
epic. And I will enjoy every moment. I vote that we for free move
all progressives to California and New York, let anyone else in those states
move for free to somewhere else, and then divorce those two states. They
can keep DC too. Then the rest of us can return to sane government and
policy.
Notwithstanding my exasperation with the failure of
common sense and skepticism to prevail, I will try one more time to simply list
why we shouldn’t get all hysterical again and what data our supposed government
experts should be providing.
Let’s start with Delta. Contrary to the
misinformation being spread by many, including the so-called experts, the
research to date shows:
1.
It has a lower hospitalization and
death rate.
2.
It is perhaps somewhat more transmissible.
3.
It does not result in substantially higher
viral loads.
4.
Vaccines are only marginally less effective
against Delta infections.
5.
It does not have a worse impact on children.
Now let us move on to vaccine effectiveness, where we
find that:
1.
People who are vaccinated can get
infected, but do so at lower rates than the unvaxed.
2.
People who are vaccinated and get infected
have lower viral loads than the unvaxed who become infected.
3.
People who are vaccinated and get infected
are less likely to be infectious and transmit.
4.
People who are vaccinated have much lower rates
of hospitalization and death than do those who are unvaccinated and get
infected.
5.
The research is actually mixed as to whether
vaccination or prior infection provides a stronger adaptive immune response.
6.
If you understand adaptive immunity, whether
from infection or vaccination, in regard to respiratory viruses, none of the
above is a surprise, e.g., the performance of flu vaccines and the difficulty
in developing an RSV vaccine.
Now what do we need, other than a complete replacement of
said political leaders and experts.
1.
Provide case, hospitalization and death
data by vaccination status and give us days after second dose that the case was
identified in the case of “fully” vaccinated individuals. Full adaptive
immunity is unlikely in 14 days, it takes weeks for memory B and T cells to be
completely in place.
2.
Give us the age structure of cases,
hospitalizations and deaths in the vaccinated as well as the unvaccinated.
3.
Show us at least a very representative sample
of cycle numbers from supposedly positive PCR tests in both the vaxed and
unvaxed cases. I am certain this will reveal much higher cycle numbers
and lower viral loads in the vaxed cases.
4.
Do representative sampling of supposed
positives from vaxed and unvaxed persons and attempt to culture the test swabs.
I am again certain this will show much less presence of viable virus
among the vaxed group.
5.
Give us complete reinfection cases among the
unvaccinated, including hospital and death rates. Reinfections among the
unvaxed are the equivalent of breakthrough infections in the vaxed and a direct
comparison about rates and outcomes would be helpful.
6.
Stop hiding how many hospitalizations listed
as CV-19 ones aren’t actually for CV-19. The state of Minnesota started
doing this for breakthrough infections but it should be done for all cases, so
we can compare true serious outcomes.
Finally, come up with better and more accurate messaging
on how respiratory virus vaccines should be expected to work. Stop
calling them breakthrough infections; the virus isn’t breaking through some
physical barrier. Give people at least a rudimentary explanation of how
adaptive immunity works. Explain that adaptive immunity is weaker in older
persons and those with serious health issues, so we can expect to see cases and
even serious illness continue among that group. Once more, for the three
millionth time, tell people this virus is not going away, we will live with it,
we will adapt to it, we will have preventive and treatment measures that are
effective, but it ain’t disappearing. And life is too short and too
valuable to waste it in futile attempts to avoid CV-19.
I just have to note as well, after I wrote this, that
could there be worse messaging than the CDC telling vaccinated people to wear
masks. Readers know that I don’t find any evidence to suggest masks play
any role in limiting transmission in the community. I have summarized my
reasons for that repeatedly. And what is the point in pushing, even
forcing people to get vaccinated if they have to still abide by all the same
futile and stupid restrictions. But at least the CDC is consistent, they
have done an absolutely atrocious job of communication.
That, that, that’s all folks!!!
